Stochastic Models in Fertility

  • Ganga Shrestha Royal Nepal Academy of Science and Technology. GPO Box 3323. Kathmandu


Some simple probability models applicable in fertility analysis have been presented in this paper. The probability models to birth intervals undcr the assumption of constant fecundability and varying fecondithility among women are discussed. Method of moments and method of maximum likelihood are used to estimate the parameters of the probability models. Geometric probability law has been applied to estimate the monthly probability of first conception for Nepalese women.